BLP’s summary of the most important regional news and opportunities offers an overview of the economic, social, and political landscape of Central America at just a click away.
From July 5 to July 11, 2025
Costa Rica is expected to be one of the OECD countries with the highest economic growth in 2026.
Costa Rica will be one of the best performers among the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), with a projected GDP of 3.1%, ranking third highest in the group. Although this growth is moderate compared to previous years, it stands out in the international context. The report warns that exports will be affected by US tariffs and moderate global demand. In addition, private investment could decline due to uncertainty in economic policies, while public investment will continue to be limited by fiscal factors. Despite these challenges, the Costa Rican economy remains stable. Click for more information
Government wants new Eurobonds: Here are the dollar maturities for the next five years.
The Costa Rican government will face significant dollar debt maturities over the next five years, with disbursements exceeding $1 billion in four of those years. New Eurobonds are expected to be issued after failing to reach the fundraising target in 2024. The largest payments are concentrated in 2026, 2027, 2029, and 2030, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The highest figure is in 2029, exceeding $1.5 billion between domestic and external debt. This situation will shape the national financial strategy for the coming years. Click for more information
Year-on-year inflation remains negative in Costa Rica in the first half of 2025.
During the first half of 2025, year-on-year inflation in Costa Rica remained negative, standing at -0.22% in June, according to the INEC. This decline reflects a sustained downward trend since February, when the indicator reached its highest value of the year at 1.25%. Only 41% of products and services rose in price, while 37% fell and 22% remained unchanged. Among those that increased were tomatoes and airline tickets, while gasoline and agricultural products led the declines. This situation moves inflation further away from the Central Bank’s target of between 2% and 4%. Click for more information
Lower interest rates will allow greater access to formal credit in Costa Rica.
The recent reduction in maximum interest rates in Costa Rica enables improved access to formal credit, benefiting families and consumers in particular. This decision promotes financial inclusion and strengthens households’ economic security. It also facilitates the building of healthy credit histories. Together, these actions provide new opportunities for long-term family and personal growth. Click for more information
Costa Rica faces an economic slowdown amidst internal stability.
Costa Rica may face an economic downturn in the second half of 2025, in an international context marked by geopolitical risks and possibly tariff increases, which could impact trade and commodity prices. Although slower growth is expected, domestic conditions—such as income and consumption—will remain favorable, allowing for some stability and moderate employment opportunities. Click for more information
Solar and wind energy still have growth potential in El Salvador.
El Salvador has experienced remarkable growth in the use of solar energy, whose share of the energy matrix grew by 380% in six years, reaching 7.21% at the end of 2024. With more than 60 solar plants, mainly private and installed on industrial and commercial roofs, the country seeks to reduce energy costs and continue promoting renewable sources. Click for more information
El Salvador will expand its capacity to generate geothermal energy.
El Salvador will promote geothermal energy thanks to a $150 million loan approved by the World Bank, which will be used to build two new plants: Chinameca and San Vicente, which will add 30 MW in the first stage and another 30 MW by 2030. Geothermal energy, which accounts for about 19-20% of the national energy matrix, will receive support with a new law to streamline its development. In May, geothermal generation already accounted for 18.54% of the national total. These actions seek to diversify the energy matrix and strengthen the country’s autonomy. Click for more information
El Salvador asks the United States not to apply a 10% tariff on its exports.
El Salvador has asked the United States not to apply a 10% tariff on its exports, according to the Minister of Economy, María Luisa Hayem. This request was made during a meeting with the US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, in April. Hayem highlighted the current good relationship between the two countries and stressed that the measure is outside the scope of national jurisdiction. The Salvadoran government hopes for a prompt decision on the tariff treatment. The talks so far have been constructive and are progressing positively. Click for more information
Inflation is negative for the third consecutive month.
In June, El Salvador recorded negative year-on-year inflation of -0.17%, marking the third consecutive month of deflation. Seven of the twelve CPI activities closed down, notably transportation (-3.60%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.44%), and clothing and footwear (-1.36%). In contrast, restaurants and hotels rose 3.49%, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose 2.97%. Accommodation and services also increased, and health exceeded 2%. These data reflect a downward price trend in several sectors, while others maintain moderate increases. Click for more information
73% of the investment received by the country came from Panama, Spain, and the US in the first quarter.
In the first quarter, El Salvador received $322.24 million in foreign direct investment, of which 73.2% came from Panama, Spain, and the United States. Panama led with $151.08 million, followed by Spain with $57.72 million and the United States with $27.11 million. Panama showed a significant recovery compared to the previous year, when its balance was negative. In contrast, Spain and the United States recorded year-on-year declines in their investments. These movements reflect significant changes in capital flows to the country. Click for more information
The Guatemalan Ministry of Public Finance successfully issued $1.5 billion in Treasury bonds for investment in infrastructure, social programs, and development projects. The placement attracted high international demand, totaling $6 billion in applications, and was divided into two tranches: one for $800 million at 11 years at 6.25%, and another for $700 million at 30 years at 6.875%. This positive result reflects global investors’ confidence in the country’s economic stability. In addition, recent improvements in country risk ratings have reinforced the government’s credibility. The funds will be used to promote public works, studies for the Metro, and support for agricultural production. Click for more information
GDP will surpass one trillion quetzals in 2026.
Next year, Guatemala will reach a gross domestic product (GDP) of more than one trillion quetzals, reflecting the dynamism of its economy and its potential for development. Finance Minister Jonathan Menkos points out that this growth can translate into greater employment and well-being if effective public policies are implemented. The projection for 2026 is for economic growth of 3.9%, higher than the average for previous years. The authorities are seeking to exceed the recent annual growth rate of 3.5%. This economic progress presents new challenges and opportunities for the country. Click for more information
Inflation rises to 1.79 percent.
During the first half of the year, inflation in Guatemala reached 1.79%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month (1.69%), but a marked slowdown compared to the same period in 2024 (3.62%). The cumulative variation in the consumer price index was 1.04% in June, with a monthly increase of 0.25 points. Food and transportation led the increases, with tomatoes, gasoline, instant coffee, bread, and avocados being the products with the greatest impact. The INE report highlights that, although inflation rose slightly, the trend remains moderate compared to the previous year. These figures reflect a controlled evolution of prices in the national economy. Click for more information
Cayalá attracts foreign capital and marks a milestone for Guatemala.
Ciudad Cayalá has marked a milestone in Guatemala by getting foreign investors, specifically from Panama, to purchase sustainability-linked bonds issued on the National Stock Exchange. Of the $50 million authorized, $20 million was placed, with 40% coming from international capital. This transaction, the first of its kind in the country, reinforces confidence in the Guatemalan financial market and Grupo Cayalá’s sustainable development model. The funds will be allocated to responsible urban projects that integrate economic growth and environmental commitment, demonstrating the appeal of investments with a positive local and regional impact. Click for more information
Guatemala moves forward with agreements for the train and Metro Riel.
The Guatemalan government is moving forward with the signing of agreements to develop the train and Metro Riel, with the participation of US engineers and advice from the World Bank. The train will run 21 kilometers from north to south of the capital, while the Metro Riel will have two lines, one surface and one aerial, connecting different strategic points in the city and surrounding municipalities. A letter of understanding is expected to be signed in August, although implementation will depend on additional technical evaluations. The project will be carried out under a public-private partnership and represents a significant logistical challenge for the country. Click for more information
Honduras’ customs revenue exceeds one billion dollars.
Honduras’ customs revenue increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 30.619 billion lempiras, thanks to the digitization of processes and the favorable economic environment. Sales tax contributed the largest share of revenue, followed by the Contribution for the Conservation of Road Infrastructure and Import Tariff Duties, all of which showed an increase compared to the previous year. The fuel subsidy generated a significant fiscal sacrifice for the State. These figures were highlighted by the director of the Customs Administration, Fausto Cálix. The report underscores the importance of technological modernization in revenue growth. Click for more information
The BCH’s international reserves cover 5.6 months of imports of goods and services.
The Central Bank of Honduras reported that net international reserves reached $8.848 billion, an increase of $799.2 million compared to the end of 2024. This increase is mainly due to net foreign currency purchases and disbursements, offset by foreign debt payments and fuel purchases. Foreign exchange earnings totaled $10.751 billion, growing by 24.9% annually, and expenditures reached $9.725 billion, 9.4% more than the previous year. Official reserve assets reached $9.1423 billion. These reserves cover 5.6 months of imports of goods and services. Click for more information
Legislative decree approved to position Nicaragua as a logistics hub in Central America.
The Nicaraguan government unanimously approved two credit agreements with a Chinese company to modernize and expand the Julia Herrera de Pomares Logistics Center in Chinandega. This project will double the operational capacity of the Port of Corinto and position the country as a key logistics player in Central America. The investment, worth more than 923 million yuan, will contribute to economic and social development, in line with the national plan to combat poverty. The project will be developed in four phases, beginning with engineering studies and designs in an initial area of 10 hectares. Click for more information
Legislative decree approved to position Nicaragua as a logistics hub in Central America.
The Nicaraguan government unanimously approved two credit agreements with a Chinese company to modernize and expand the Julia Herrera de Pomares Logistics Center in Chinandega. This project will double the operational capacity of the Port of Corinto and position the country as a key logistics player in Central America. The investment, worth more than 923 million yuan, will contribute to economic and social development, in line with the national plan to combat poverty. The project will be developed in four phases, beginning with engineering studies and designs in an initial area of 10 hectares. Click for more information
ECONOMIC INDEX
| Country | Exchange rate (x USD) | Basic passive rate in local currency | Current monetary policy rate | S&P sovereign debt indicator | Moodys Sovereign Debt Indicator | Fitch indicator | Interannual Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Rica | 506,64 | 3,91% | 4,00% | B | B1 | BB | 1,25% |
| El Salvador | – | 5,84% | Not available | B- | B3 | B- | 0,06% |
| Guatemala | 7,67 | 3,56% | 4,50% | BB+ | Ba1 | BB | 1,79% |
| Honduras | 26,17 | 6,16% | 5,75% | BB- | B1 | No rating | 4,75% |
| Nicaragua | 36,62 | 3,00% | 6,25% | B+ | B2 | B | 3,45% |
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